多萝西·伊丽莎白·丹宁2.詹姆斯·B·金尼博格（James B. Kinniburgh），美国空军士兵
作者在文章中探讨了博客对潜在的军事信息策略的价值。文中探讨了博客是否具有影响力。如果信息环境能充分支持博客的信息活动，那么博客中的内容是否能作为一个显着的，可靠的信息作战情报来源。他们以战术和技术的实际就业归结为例。指出博客是否能成功运营取决于许多变量必须是环境的制备过程中确定的情报。
Blogs and Military Information Strategy
by James B. Kinniburgh, Major, USAF, and Dr. Dorothy E. Denning
Editorial Abstract: The authors explore the potential value of blogs to military information strategy. They examine whether blogs are influential, if the information environment adequately supports blogging for an information campaign, and whether blogs offer a significant, reliable source of intelligence for information operations. They note actual employment of tactics and techniques comes down to cases. Successful employment of blog operations depends on a number of variables that must be determined during intelligence preparation of the environment.
Introduction
September, 2004: the US presidential campaign is in full swing and the producers of the television news show, 60 Minutes Wednesday, received a memo purporting to show
sitting President George W. Bush used his family connections to avoid military service obligations. The story, given the controversy and ratings it will generate, is just too good not to run. On cursory inspection, the documents and their source appear legitimate. On September 8th, 60 Minutes producer Mary Mapes, and anchorman Dan Ratherdecide to air it…
Within minutes of airtime, posted discussion participants at the conservative website FreeRepublic.com posited the documents were faked. Bloggers at Power Line (2004) and Little Green Footballs (littlegreenfootballs.com) picked up these comments and posted them and their associated hyperlinks on their own blogs. What followed initially was what is known as a “blogswarm,” where the story was carried on multiple blogs, and then later by a “mediaswarm.” As a result of these phenomena, and CBS’ inability to authenticate the documents, several CBS employees, including producer Mary Mapes, were asked to resign. Within a month, Dan Rather announced his own retirement.What garnered considerable interest afterward was how a group of non-professional journalists was able to outperform and “bring down” two icons of the traditional media. CBS executive Jonathan Klein said of the bloggers, “You couldn’t have a starker contrast between the multiple layers of checks and balances (at 60 Minutes) and a guy sitting in his living room in his pajamas writing.” (Parker)This article explores the possibility of incorporating blogs and blogging into military information strategy, primarily as a tool for influence. Towards that end, we examine the value of blogs as targets of and/or platforms for military influence operations and supporting intelligence operationsTo evaluate the Information Operations (IO) potential for blogs, we seek answers to two questions:
1) Are blogs truly influential, and if so, in what way?
2) Does the information environment support blogging as part of an information campaign?
Blogs and the Blogosphere
The blogosphere is the world of blogs, bloggers, and their interconnections. It lies mostly within the Web, but it intersects traditional media and social networks as well. To
illustrate, The Washington Post features several blogs on its website alongside the newspaper’s traditional editorials and op-ed columns, and blog entries often make their way into social networks through e-mail. Entrenched Inequality and HierarchyThe Web is generally considered egalitarian, in that anyone can set up a website. In practice, however, not all nodes are equal. Indeed, the network formed by webpages and their links to each other is often said to follow a power law, meaning the probability that any given node (webpage) is linked to k number of other nodes, is proportional to 1/kn for some constant n (about 2 for the Web). The power law implies that for any given node in the network, odds are it will have relatively few connections, but there will be a few favored nodes with a disproportionately large number of connections. A network that follows a power law distribution is said to be scale free.
Research has shown that the blogosphere itself approximates a scale-free net. This is illustrated in Figure 1, which shows the middle part of the curve as computed by Technorati in 2006. (Sifry, 13 Feb 2006) However, the power law may not be an exact fit to the blogosphere. Daniel Drezner and Henry Farrell (July 2004) found that the distribution of links among political blogs was closer to a lognormal distribution rather than a straight power law. Regardless of whether the power law or lognormal distribution better models the full blogosphere, both distributions are highly skewed. This inequality reflects a hierarchy among blogs. Simply put, a few blogs are extremely popular (have lots of inbound connections), while the majority are hardly noticed or lie somewhere in between. This hierarchy is generally reinforced through a process called “preferential attachment.” As a scale-free network grows, the established nodes that are already highly connected tend to pick up the new links. In short, the “rich get richer.” The nodes with few connections also gain links, but the overall inequality is reinforced. (Barabási and Bonabeau).The implications of the entrenched inequality of the blogosphere for influence operations are threefold. First, other things being equal, the blogs that are linked to the most often are likely to be among the most influential. Second, the vast majority of blogs can be ignored, concentrating efforts on the most popular blogs. Third, bringing a new blog into prominence is likely to be slow and difficult. It is not, however, impossible. Technorati, which ranks blogs in terms of the most links from unique sources, found that the third and fifth ranked
blogs in February 2006 did not even make the top 100 in April 2005. (Sifry, 13 Feb 2006)
Who Blogs and Why
According to the Pew Internet and American Life Project (PIP), between February and November of 2004, the numbers of blog readers and blog creators both increased by 50% or more, reaching about 7% and 27% respectively of Internet users (PIP, Jan 2005). However, more recent data from Technorati.com indicates that the blogosphere doubled in size about every six months during a three year period ending in March 2006 (Figure 2). As of April 2006, Technorati.com was tracking 35.3 million weblogs and recording 75,000 new ones each day. (Sifry, 17 Apr 2006) Some of these sites are “splogs” (spam blogs) and not actual blogs. Splogs mimic blogs, but contain entries full
of hyperlinked text that directs readers to other sites. From 2% to 8% of the blogs created daily in late 2005 were said to fall into this category. (Kesmodel) With regard to the bloggers themselves, several studies exist that quantify and qualify American Internet users. (PIP, 25 Jan 2005; Lebo and Wolpert). Nearly 75% of Americans use the Internet regularly, and those who use it most regularly tend to be young, male, have some degree of college education and generally are in or from the middle to upper- middle
income brackets. These are the people who tend to be the most politically active, as well. Blog creators follow this.
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在本文中，详细展示了一些潜在的博客现象的军事信息战略。鉴于目前的美国的状态和国际法，以及必要的分布在当局的许多机构（通常是政府竞争），任何通过操控博客来控制的行为都需要一个真正集成的跨部门方法，因此属于国家级的总体战略沟通的一部分。军事用途在博客世界必须专注于国外的博客，博客作者和观众。然而，由于一些因素，如随着网络的无标准度和心理基础的影响是普遍的，作者希望可以产生辅助博客来适用于军事用途以及布置具体战术情况的信息运营商。
1.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dorothy_E._Denning
2.http://hi.baidu.com/fairex/item/ff8faae872988fd0eb34c949
3.http://www.au.af.mil/info-ops/iosphere/iosphere_summer06_kinniburgh.pdf
4.http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary;jsessionid=C0F6BD3E46AC47FBEA3E0EA955B6B260?doi=10.1.1.183.6551
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